Stock Market Competition: One Big Loser

by JT McGee

My portfolio is doing pretty well in the stock market competition at FinancialUproar. I’ll be interested to see how its doing in TFB’s competition. It’s beating the broad market, so I cannot complain.

But I do have something that rubs me the wrong way: Ford Motor Company.

Check it:

I’m thoroughly annoyed with that yellow line. Silly Ford, an incredibly awesome turnaround, low price to forward earnings, and exceptional margin of safety in unit volumes are apparently all events that should push your stock price down. But international results are going to be pretty weak this year, as anticipated. Capital expenditures will rock Ford’s earnings for the rest of the year, as well. Sometimes headlines value companies, not the underlying fundamentals – shame.

Haters gonna hate.

Stock by stock

  1. Adams Golf – Sold to the highest single bidder. If I could find an Adams Golf once every 5 years, all the research would be worth it. Sidebar: Wish I could reinvest this portion of the portfolio. At least give me a high-yield, short-term bond ETF!
  2. Darling International – Cash cow. Where are the private equity buyers when you need them? Depending on how the rest of the year plays out, I bet this one comes back in my 2013 selections. Upcoming JV with Valero should help this company kill it.
  3. Transocean – Improving rig utilization and very good day rates for its rigs on long-term contracts will lift this company.
  4. Ford – Argh. Patience. This should serve as a reminder for why I rarely venture into large cap stocks.

Just for fun, let’s go back to the 2011 picks to see:

Not too shabby! Add CNU in there for a ~150% return (reinvested in MDF, its acquirer, at the time of closing) and that’s a winning portfolio with an 85%, 18-month return. Definitely won’t repeat that performance with this year’s portfolio, as I went with much larger companies this year than last year. Still, I like the opportunity in these slightly larger companies I picked for this year.

The hardest part about stock picking contests is that you only have one year. It’s hard to find value stocks with a catalyst for immediate value realization. Timing is everything.

Don’t tell the trio at DQYDJ, but I don’t like their odds of beating me. Sorry, bros.

Disclosure: Long RIG, DAR, F, MDF (but I will probably start pulling all my capital from MDF if the valuation gets richer.)

{ 1 comment… read it below or add one }

PK July 6, 2012 at 00:23

I didn’t hear any fat ladies singing, my man. Pride goes before the fall and all that!


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