Round Up: Investing in Darts

by JT McGee

Checking in with my stock picks for 2012 it becomes quite clear how different reality can diverge from my own expectations.

The company I wanted to leave out, mostly because it was the most uncertain with high operating leverage, Transocean, is my best winner this year. Less than two months into the game my prediction that this stock will either make me or break me is pretty darn true.

Here’s the group together, with the SPY added as my benchmark:

All together I’m hanging out with a ~20% return for the first few months vs. a 7% return for the S&P500 index. Not bad. I’ll be disappointed if this portfolio doesn’t return a total return in excess of 35% for the full 2012 year. I have the benefit of picking only four stocks vs. the S&P’s 500 equities. Given that I can pick my favorite four, I should always outperform. We’ll see.

Good Reads

  1. Darwin wrote about the Welfare States of America – a very interesting read on tax revenues and spending. Also, I’ve joined Darwin’s sites as a staff writer, authoring posts on Romney’s income tax rate as well as diversification strategies for bond upside.
  2. PK and Cameron at Don’t Quit Your Day Job have an interesting post about Sports Gambling and Live Markets. It brings some interesting discussion on volume, liquidity, and the potential that a market could come about as a result of just about anything.
  3. 101Centavos ran an interesting post about buying uranium as an investment. 101C’s site is always trying to sell me on a sector I avoid! Even still, I keep going back because of articles like these.

{ 4 comments… read them below or add one }

PK February 11, 2012 at 13:27

Thanks for the link! (That article was all Cameron. He suddenly decided to write a bunch…)

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JT McGee February 12, 2012 at 21:22

He must have heard how DQYDJ.net is more than Ramen-profitable. Those bloggin’ big bucks, right?

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101 Centavos February 12, 2012 at 19:35

RIG is on fire, isn’t it? They’re not being treated very well down in Brazil, but it doesn’t seem to affect their stock much. Thanks for the link, JT!

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JT McGee February 12, 2012 at 21:21

It really is. High operating leverage + the slightest sign that the markets are up = a good start to the year, I guess. I never really took the Brazil issue all that seriously. I mean, I guess it seems like a big deal now, but everyone will forget and nothing will ever come of it. Oil spills – meh, who cares, right?

Thanks for educating me on uranium!

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